Wednesday, 22 November 2017

All pollsters show ANO as winner of this weekend's election

ČTK |
16 October 2017

Prague, Oct 15 (CTK) - Recent public opinion polls released by various agencies have all shown billionaire Andrej Babis's ANO movement as the clear winner of the October 20-21 Czech general election, in spite of a recent popularity decline, and the Social Democrats (CSSD) or the Communists (KSCM) coming second.

ANO and the CSSD are partners in the centre-left government which also includes the junior centrist Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL).

According to the election models agencies have released since June, the rightist opposition Civic Democrats (ODS) will end fourth.

Tomio Okamura's small opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy Movement (SPD) will probably re-enter the Chamber of Deputies, and the Czech Pirate Party (CPS) might enter it for the first time, the polls show.

Most election models say the KDU-CSL and the conservative opposition TOP 09 will re-enter the Chamber as well, more or less narrowly crossing the 5-percent threshold.

A total of eight parties might thus appear in the new Chamber of Deputies again after more than two decades.

Like in the past, election turnout might reach some 60 percent, the polls indicate.

Only a half of voters have already decided on which party to support. The rest usually make their mind in the last week before the elections, which is why the election results may differ from the election models based on public opinion polls.

For example, a fresh poll conducted by the Behavio company together with the sociology department of Charles University's Faculty of Arts has shown that 51 percent of voters still hesitate on whether to cast their ballot and whom to support.

About 20 percent of voters have decided not to take part in the elections, and about 30 percent have already chosen a party to support, the poll showed.

ANO has been the comfortable front-runner of party popularity polls for long, but its voter preferences dropped below 30 percent, to some 25 percent, in the past few months.

The other parties lag far behind ANO. Only two of them, the CSSD and the KSCM, are expected to gain more than 10 percent of the vote and to clash for the second position.

The ODS's preferences are narrowly below 10 percent, according to some polls.

The SPD and the Pirates are likely to enter parliament thanks to people's protest votes, according to analysts.

TOP 09 and the KDU-CSL's preferences oscillate above the 5-percent threshold.

Out of the parties below the threshold, the Mayors and Independents (STAN) and the Greens are the closest to it.

According to a prognosis released by researchers from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University, which also takes betting odds into account, the elections will be won by ANO with 26.2 percent of the vote, followed by the CSSD (13.1), the KSCM (11.6), the ODS (9.2), the SPD (8.6), the Pirates (7), TOP 09 (6.6) and the KDU-CSL (5.2).

Monday, October 16 is the deadline for releasing last party popularity polls. Afterwards, their releasing is banned from Tuesday until the polling stations close on Saturday, 14:00.

Development of parties' results (in percent) according to election models:

date of poll agency ANO CSSD KSCM ODS SPD Pirates TOP 09 KDU-CSL STAN Greens
June 5-15 STEM 32.8 11.4 12.7 9.6 4.4 3.8 5.5 7.4 0.9 1.7
June 5-18 CVVM 34 12 14.5 11.0 4.5 3.5 6.5 7.5 1.0 1.5
20. May 25-June 25 MEDIAN 27.5 14.0 15.5 10.0 4.5 3.5 7.5 9x 9x 3
June 5-25 Kantar TNS 33.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 7.5 4.0 7.5 7.5x 7.5x 2
June 21-July 3 STEM 32.9 13.3 14.3 9.1 6.2 3.1 6.2 6.7 1.9 2
June 21-July 2 Focus 29.3 16.4 11.8 10.9 5.7 5.2 7.2 7.6x 7.6x 3.5
June 26-July 24 MEDIAN 27.5 14.0 14.5 11.0 5.5 4.0 7.5 9.5x 9.5x 2
- Medea Research 33.3 10.9 8.5 9.5 7.4 6 6.9 9.1x 9.1x -
July 26-Aug 23 MEDIAN 26.5 14.5 13.0 10.0 6.0 3.5 9.0 6.5 3.5 2
Aug 18-27 Medea Research 28,2 13,5 11,5 7,7 - 8,8 5,4 6 5,4 -
Aug 14-28 Focus 28,4 15,7 12,5 12,1 5,0 4,0 7,3 7,1 3,3 2,1
Sept 4-14 CVVM 30,9 13,1 11,1 9,1 7,3 6,4 4,4 6,2 2,7 1,8
Aug 28- Sept 25 Median 27 13,5 12,5 9,5 6,5 6 7 6 4 2
Sept 14- 25 Medea Research 30.6 13.7 10.9 5.6 6.2 10 5.9 4.6 3.8 3.6
- STEM/MARK 26.5 12.2 14.2 8.9 8.2 6.1 4.9 5.8 3.1 3
May 15-Sept 28 Median 27 13.5 12.5 9.5 6.5 6 7 6 4 2.5
Oct 3-10 Focus 26.5 15.7 12.4 9.9 7.1 6.6 7.0 6.2 2.9 2.6
Oct 11 STEM 27.1 11.7 13.9 8.3 9.3 6.9 5.0 5.5 3.2 2.9
Source: agencies' public opinion polls

(for the KDU-CSL and STAN, identical figures with "x" mark are the forecast result of their planned but eventually scrapped election coalition)

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